Forex And US Dollar Market Conditions

The monthly FOMC statement is when the Fed policymakers make their big announcement on monetary policy adjustments or interest rate changes. As such, this FOMC statement US dollar economic event tends to spark a huge reaction from the U.S. dollar and could even dictate longer-term forex trends for dollar pairs.

 

Fed officials usually divulge changes in their economic projections during the rate statement too, and these play a role in shaping policy biases. Even without actual interest rate changes, the Fed outlook makes a strong influence on market expectations, which then affect dollar price action.

A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see traders looking ahead to what is arguably the week’s most significant bit of scheduled event risk: the Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement. The rate-setting FOMC committee is expected to deliver a final $15 billion “taper” of asset purchases, ending the QE3 stimulus program. The probability of a surprise extension seems overwhelmingly unlikely. That means the announcement’s market-moving potential will be found in guidance for the timing of the first subsequent rate hike inferred from the accompanying policy statement.

Recent weeks have witnessed a moderation in the post-QE3 Fed tightening outlook as global slowdown fears encouraged speculation that the central bank will want to safe-guard the US recovery from knock-on effects of weakness elsewhere by delaying normalization. Indeed, Fed Funds futures now reveal priced-in expectations of a rate hike no sooner than December of next year, far later than prior bets calling for a move around mid-year.

 A change in the FOMC statement reflecting renewed concerns about persistently low inflation would validate this shift, weighing on the US Dollar.

 

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused to consolidate following a breakout that seems to mark longer-term uptrend resumption. A daily close above the 11102-43 area marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and the October 3 high exposes the 38.2% level at 11216. Alternatively, a turn below the intersection of channel top resistance-turned-support and the 23.6% Fib retracement at 10959 clears the way for a test of the 38.2% threshold at 10845.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices advanced to a one-month high to test resistance at 1987.70, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break above that on a daily closing basis exposes the 38.2% level at 2010.10. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib at 1973.80 aims for the October 27 low at 1951.40.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Sellers now aim to challenge the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1216.87, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 1193.16. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 14.6% Fib at 1231.49 aims for the 1248.57-55.20 area marked by a falling trend line set from mid-July and the October 21 high.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern, hinting a bounce may be ahead. A break above 87.67, the intersection of the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement and channel floor support-turned-resistance, exposes the 23.6% level at 90.62. Near-term support is at 82.88, the October 15 low

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